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4

Al Sayah

6yo Mare · 11-10 · OR 124

Perth · Edinburgh Gin Owner Trainer Jockey Awards Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 207y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Likeable mare who ran a personal best in a first-time visor when close third at Haydock in May. As good as ever with a decisive success on the Flat subsequently and did well to finish 6½ lengths third following a clumsy jumping display at Cartmel last time. Serious player if her jumping holds up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 06/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 107 · 2m3f123y Gd 161 · below its mark06/06/2025 · OR 107 par6/064OR 1073 @ Cartmel 19/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 117 · 2m6f31y Goo 157 · below its mark19/07/2025 · OR 117 par4 @ Newton Abbot 18/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 118 · 2m5f122y GS 168 · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 118 par18/104OR 1184 @ Plumpton 16/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 118 · 2m1f169y Goo 168 · below its mark16/03/2026 · OR 118 par3 @ Taunton 09/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 117 · 2m7f198y Gd 157 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 117 par9/043OR 1172 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 122 · 3m58y Goo 145 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 122 par2 @ Cartmel 25/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 125 · 3m1f83y Gd 164 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 125 par25/052OR 1255 @ Nottingham 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 66 · 2m1f208y Goo 135 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 66 par2 @ Cartmel 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 125 · 3m1f83y Goo 168 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 125 par31/082OR 125projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Cartmel23rd3rd0
2026-07-17Nottingham51st5th−3
2026-05-25Cartmel24th4th0
2026-05-09Haydock23rd3rd0
2026-04-09Taunton31st2nd−1
2026-03-16Plumpton44th6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0616/0325/0531/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength73%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20252nd11/486%80%-0.06
19/07/20253rd15/261%85%+0.24
18/10/20254th11/271%63%-0.09
16/03/20264th7/163%0%-0.63
09/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
09/05/20263rd16/116%86%+0.70
25/05/20264th4/179%63%-0.16
17/07/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
31/08/20263rd13/266%67%+0.01