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Letterston Lily

6yo Mare · 11-8 · OR 122

Perth · Edinburgh Gin Owner Trainer Jockey Awards Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 207y

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smooth-travelling mare who defied a 17-month absence in taking fashion over 2½m here in April. Found 2m in the Summer Hurdle too sharp prior to resuming progress with success at Worcester (2½m) last time, pulling clear with another improver. Leading claims if lining up. Engaged 2.47 Perth Wednesday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Market Rasen 20/07/2024 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 2m4f139y Gd 15020/0734 @ Worcester 28/08/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 113 · 2m4f Goo 150 · beat its mark28/08/2024 · OR 113 par2 @ Worcester 27/09/2024 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 113 · 2m4f Sft 148 · beat its mark27/09/2024 · OR 113 par27/092OR 1133 @ Cheltenham 25/10/2024 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 114 · 2m3f200y Gd 144 · below its mark25/10/2024 · OR 114 par3 @ Cheltenham 15/11/2024 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 114 · 2m87y Goo 161 · below its mark15/11/2024 · OR 114 par15/113OR 1144 @ Perth 23/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 112 · 2m4f35y Goo 165 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 112 par2 @ Market Rasen 18/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 118 · 2m125y Gd 153 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 118 par18/072OR 1184 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 117 · 2m4f Gd 170 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 117 par4 @ Perth 23/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 122 · 2m4f35y Goo 170 · below its mark23/09/2026 · OR 122 par23/094OR 122projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Perth42nd4th−2
2026-08-23Worcester41st3rd−2
2026-07-18Market Rasen28th8th0
2026-04-23Perth41st3rd−2
2024-11-15Cheltenham311th12th−1
2024-10-25Cheltenham34th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0725/1018/0723/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/07/20242nd2/189%80%-0.09
28/08/20241st6/594%100%+0.06
27/09/20243rd11/271%82%+0.11
25/10/20244th9/276%75%-0.01
15/11/202411th6/168%29%-0.40
23/04/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
18/07/20268th9/276%42%-0.35
23/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
23/09/20262nd6/492%91%-0.01