2
Marsiac
5yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 127
Perth · Edinburgh Gin Owner Trainer Jockey Awards Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 207y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Kempton | 2 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Hereford | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-25 | Hereford | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Aintree | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -26.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 26/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 14/03/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |