5
My Chiquita
7yo Mare · 11-9 · OR 123
Perth · Edinburgh Gin Owner Trainer Jockey Awards Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 207y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Cartmel | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Cartmel | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Aintree | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-09-11 | Uttoxeter | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-07 | Worcester | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/05/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 21/06/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 07/07/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |