12
Spit Spot
7yo Mare · 10-6 · OR 106
Perth · Edinburgh Gin Owner Trainer Jockey Awards Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 207y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Perth | 4 | −2 | ||
| 2026-06-05 | Musselburgh | 5 | 5th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-05-21 | Musselburgh | 5 | 6th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-04-22 | Perth | 4 | −2 | ||
| 2026-03-20 | Musselburgh | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength26%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |
| 20/03/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |