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3

Broken Ice

10yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 102

Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y

#9

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to form with third over C&D last month. Confirmed he's not as good over fences these days when never a factor at Kilbeggan last month but this is easier back in Britain and returned to smaller obstacles.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.9
Today: 5
Class gap: -2.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Perth 16/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 102 · 2m7f207y Gd 166 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 102 par16/085OR 1024 @ Sedgefield 04/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 107 · 3m3f9y Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/09/2025 · OR 107 parBHA100 @ Sligo 01/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 100 · 3m1f182y Yie 168 · below its mark01/10/2025 · OR 100 par1/10100OR 1004 @ Newcastle 03/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 107 · 2m7f149y GS 167 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/03/2026 · OR 107 parBHA99 @ Punchestown 02/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 99 · 3m90y Goo 161 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 99 par2/0599OR 99BHA98 @ Wexford 27/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 98 · 2m1f Goo 166 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 98 parBHA96 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 96 · 2m1f165y Gd 164 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 96 par14/0796OR 965 @ Perth 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 100 · 2m7f207y Gd 163 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 100 parBHA93 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 93 · 3m1f180y Goo 163 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 93 par21/0893OR 93projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA935th10th−4
2026-08-15Perth53rd3rd0
2026-07-14DownpatrickBHA9610th16th−5
2026-05-27WexfordBHA985th11th−5
2026-05-02PunchestownBHA998th14th−5
2026-03-03Newcastle44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/083/0314/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength94%

Delivery trend -0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
04/09/20254th5/174%57%-0.17
01/10/20254th15/261%70%+0.09
03/03/20264th50/10%63%+0.63
02/05/20268th150/10%50%+0.50
27/05/20265th28/10%69%+0.69
14/07/202610th25/10%36%+0.36
15/08/20263rd10/382%80%-0.02
21/08/20265th11/271%69%-0.02