Dalileo
11yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 98
Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Perth | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Perth | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Perth | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 31/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 12/11/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 77% | +0.72 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 83% | +0.78 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |