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9

Reflection Of You

7yo Mare · 11-1 · OR 90

Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Point/bumper winner who made successful switch to hurdling (had been chasing) at Musselburgh in December. Sound third back there 6 weeks later and while off the track since, she's in very capable hands.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Kelso 08/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m4f189y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS8/1234 @ Ayr 06/01/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 2m4f100y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Musselburgh 16/02/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 91 · 2m7f180y Goo 164 · below its mark16/02/2025 · OR 91 par16/025OR 915 @ Musselburgh 21/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 90 · 2m3f171y Goo 158 · below its mark21/03/2025 · OR 90 par5 @ Perth 15/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 87 · 2m4f20y Gd 152 · beat its mark15/05/2025 · OR 87 par15/055OR 875 @ Perth 24/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 87 · 2m4f20y Goo 158 · below its mark24/09/2025 · OR 87 par5 @ Perth 21/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 87 · 2m7f180y Sft 155 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 87 par21/105OR 875 @ Musselburgh 22/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 86 · 2m7f180y Goo 151 · beat its mark22/12/2025 · OR 86 par4 @ Musselburgh 01/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 90 · 2m7f180y GS 150 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/02/2026 · OR 90 par1/024OR 90projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-01Musselburgh43rd2nd+1
2025-12-22Musselburgh51st1st0
2025-12-08Musselburgh50
2025-10-21Perth53rd3rd0
2025-09-24Perth55th5th0
2025-05-15Perth53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1221/0321/101/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/12/20243rd6/168%71%+0.03
06/01/20255th5/287%33%-0.54
16/02/20257th11/142%14%-0.28
21/03/20255th12/137%50%+0.13
15/05/20253rd12/137%71%+0.35
24/09/20255th4/179%33%-0.46
21/10/20253rd6/168%67%-0.02
22/12/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
01/02/20263rd6/168%71%+0.03