Steps In The Sand
7yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 96
Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kilbeggan | BHA93 | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA91 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | BHA91 | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA69 | 11th | 13th | −2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA91 | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA92 | 4th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 08/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 24/05/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 77% | -0.05 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 31/07/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.20 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |