IvyArcIvyArc
2

Way Maker

5yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 102

Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual bumper scorer who ran to a fair level on second hurdles start when runner-up in a Southwell maiden in June. Rather expensive to follow since, his jumping an issue but step up in trip will suit and this opening mark really should be within range.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength60%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m145y Goo 152 · HIGHER CLASS4/0745 @ Stratford 18/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m70y GF 1602 @ Newbury 21/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR - · 2m69y Goo 166 · HIGHER CLASS21/0324 @ Perth 14/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 2m47y GS 159 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Southwell 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 2m4f88y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS2/0644 @ Market Rasen 05/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 107 · 2m4f139y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 107 par4 @ Market Rasen 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 105 · 2m4f139y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 105 par15/084OR 1054 @ Sedgefield 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 104 · 2m5f34y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 104 par9/094OR 104projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Sedgefield42nd1st+1
2026-08-15Market Rasen42nd1st+1
2026-07-05Market Rasen43rd2nd+1
2026-06-28Uttoxeter3+2
2026-06-02Southwell42nd1st+1
2026-05-14Perth43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0714/0515/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
18/08/20251st2/799%100%+0.02
21/03/202611th33/10%47%+0.47
14/05/20263rd16/583%83%+0.00
02/06/20262nd11/893%75%-0.18
05/07/20263rd5/696%67%-0.29
15/08/20262nd3/184%89%+0.05
09/09/20262nd4/696%75%-0.21