1
Wee Alki
7yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 103
Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Hexham | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-05-27 | Cartmel | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Hexham | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Sedgefield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Sedgefield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Musselburgh | 5 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength62%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 07/06/2025 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 03/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 07/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/01/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |