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7

Beat The Retreat

7yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 89

Perth · A Place For You Here Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice on testing ground last season, including on return from a similar absence at Ayr in December. No surprise to see him bounce back in change of headgear following a break, though we'll probably see the best of him over the winter.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Musselburgh 21/03/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 89 · 2m3f171y Goo 157 · below its mark21/03/2025 · OR 89 par21/035OR 895 @ Perth 23/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 88 · 2m7f207y GS 154 · below its mark23/04/2025 · OR 88 par5 @ Perth 14/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 86 · 2m4f35y Gd 155 · beat its mark14/05/2025 · OR 86 par14/055OR 865 @ Hexham 07/06/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 89 · 2m4f28y Goo 157 · below its mark07/06/2025 · OR 89 par5 @ Perth 03/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 87 · 2m4f35y Goo 155 · below its mark03/07/2025 · OR 87 par3/075OR 875 @ Ayr 01/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 85 · 2m3f110y Hvy 153 · beat its mark01/12/2025 · OR 85 par5 @ Musselburgh 22/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 87 · 2m7f180y Goo 152 · below its mark22/12/2025 · OR 87 par22/125OR 875 @ Musselburgh 15/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 87 · 2m3f171y Sft 156 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 87 par5 @ Perth 23/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 92 · 2m47y Goo 160 · below its mark23/04/2026 · OR 92 par23/045OR 92projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-13Perth50
2026-04-23Perth54th4th0
2026-02-15Musselburgh51st1st0
2025-12-22Musselburgh510th10th0
2025-12-01Ayr51st1st0
2025-07-03Perth58th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/037/0622/1223/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength61%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20257th5/174%25%-0.49
23/04/20255th22/10%60%+0.60
14/05/20252nd6/168%86%+0.17
07/06/202511th18/15%29%+0.23
03/07/20258th16/116%30%+0.14
01/12/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
22/12/202510th7/163%25%-0.38
15/02/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
23/04/20264th10/147%77%+0.30