16
Burgundy Man
9yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 76
Perth · A Place For You Here Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y
#14
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Perth | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-02 | Perth | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Perth | 5 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 14-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 08/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 07/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |
| 23/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |