Coventry
9yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 80
Perth · A Place For You Here Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y
#16
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 7.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Hexham | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Perth | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Kelso | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Perth | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/07/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 08/09/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 24/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 05/10/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 30% | -0.41 |
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 01/12/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 10/12/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 31/12/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |