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Forest Spirit

5yo Mare · 10-12 · OR 84

Perth · A Place For You Here Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y

#6

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smooth-travelling mare who was a narrow second to an Olly Murphy-trained favourite at Worcester (23f), seeing out the longer trip. Fancied to go well given the prospect of a strongly-run 2½m here, for all this is a deeper race than last time. Engaged 5.07 Perth Wednesday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Worcester 26/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m4f Gd 148 · HIGHER CLASS26/0945 @ Ffos Las 16/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 86 · 2m4f Gd 147 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 86 par5 @ Ffos Las 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 83 · 2m4f Goo 153 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 83 par21/045OR 835 @ Ffos Las 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 2m4f GS 155 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 81 par5 @ Cartmel 26/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 82 · 2m6f31y Gd 150 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 82 par26/065OR 824 @ Market Rasen 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 81 · 2m125y Gd 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 81 par5 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 79 · 2m4f Gd 147 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 79 par23/085OR 795 @ Worcester 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 79 · 2m7f Gd 154 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 79 par5 @ Perth 23/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 84 · 2m7f207y Goo 156 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 84 par23/095OR 84projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Perth52nd2nd0
2026-09-10Worcester52nd2nd0
2026-08-23Worcester53rd3rd0
2026-07-18Market Rasen44th3rd+1
2026-06-26Cartmel57th7th0
2026-05-20Ffos Las52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0920/0523/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength78%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/20257th200/10%40%+0.40
16/10/20255th40/10%20%+0.20
21/04/20263rd25/10%67%+0.67
20/05/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
26/06/20267th9/153%25%-0.28
18/07/20264th7/163%0%-0.63
23/08/20263rd20/10%83%+0.83
10/09/20262nd3/184%90%+0.06
23/09/20262nd7/282%91%+0.09