15
Malangen
11yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 77
Perth · A Place For You Here Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Perth | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Perth | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hexham | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Hexham | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-06 | Hexham | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 2-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 02/07/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |