12
On The Bubble
5yo Mare · 10-9 · OR 81
Perth · A Place For You Here Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y
#13
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Kelso | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
Delivery trend +8.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 20/07/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 22% | +0.17 |
| 16/09/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |