Tigress Lilly
5yo Mare · 11-5 · OR 91
Perth · A Place For You Here Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y
#12
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Perth | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Perth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Perth | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Musselburgh | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 28/11/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 23/04/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 02/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 89% | +0.84 |