2
Zephlyn
7yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 99
Perth · A Place For You Here Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Catterick | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Hexham | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Perth | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Southwell | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 11-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 06/01/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/01/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |