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5

Bust A Moon

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 45

Pontefract · ROA Shared Ownership Day Apprentice Handicap · 5f 3y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed a 5f Beverley seller last May for Ian McInnes and produced his best effort for this yard when fourth of 12 in handicap at Carlisle (5f, good to soft) 15 days ago, nearest finish. On a handy mark if regular slow starts can be rectified.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Carlisle 01/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 52 · 5f Gd 131 · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 52 par1/096OR 526 @ Carlisle 09/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 52 · 5f Sft 126 · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 52 · 5f Std 131 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 52 par19/096OR 526 @ Beverley 23/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 52 · 5f Sft 129 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Wolverhampton 01/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 50 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 50 par1/066OR 506 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 48 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 47 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 47 par8/086OR 476 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 46 · 4f215y Std 121 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 46 · 5f Goo 122 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 46 par9/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle64th4th0
2026-09-03Southwell64th4th0
2026-08-08Redcar65th5th0
2026-07-31Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-06-01Wolverhampton611th11th0
2025-09-23Beverley66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0923/098/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/20253rd18/15%85%+0.79
09/09/202510th20/10%31%+0.31
19/09/202511th33/10%23%+0.23
23/09/20256th7/282%38%-0.44
01/06/202611th50/10%0%0.00
31/07/20263rd50/10%60%+0.60
08/08/20265th33/10%33%+0.33
03/09/20264th25/10%40%+0.40
09/09/20264th28/10%73%+0.73