Danger Alert
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 59
Pontefract · ROA Shared Ownership Day Apprentice Handicap · 5f 3y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-04 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-20 | Bath | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 30/09/2025 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 23% | -0.03 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 25/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |
| 04/12/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |