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7

Tilsworth Turf

6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 45

Pontefract · ROA Shared Ownership Day Apprentice Handicap · 5f 3y

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hasn't won since September 2024, though produced one of his better recent efforts when third of 8 in handicap at Yarmouth (6f, soft) when last seen back in June. Well positioned there, though, and others might be sharper after a break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ripon 19/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 50 · 6f Sft 129 · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 50 par19/076OR 506 @ Newcastle 08/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 45 · 6f Sta 126 · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Leicester 22/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 47 · 7f Goo 125 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 47 par22/096OR 476 @ Southwell 03/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 45 · 4f214y Std 130 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Yarmouth 21/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 45 · 6f3y GS 121 · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 45 par21/106OR 456 @ Southwell 04/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 45 · 6f16y Std 126 · beat its mark04/01/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Southwell 20/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 45 · 4f214y Std 121 · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 45 par20/016OR 456 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 45 · 6f18y Goo 121 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Yarmouth 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 45 · 6f3y Sft 126 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 45 par11/066OR 45projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-11Yarmouth63rd3rd0
2026-06-03Nottingham69th9th0
2026-01-20Southwell68th8th0
2026-01-04Southwell610th10th0
2025-10-21Yarmouth69th9th0
2025-10-03Southwell63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/073/1020/0111/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/202510th33/10%0%0.00
08/09/202510th66/10%10%+0.10
22/09/20259th40/10%11%+0.11
03/10/20253rd100/10%78%+0.78
21/10/20259th40/10%47%+0.47
04/01/202610th40/10%0%0.00
20/01/20268th50/10%13%+0.13
03/06/20269th50/10%0%0.00
11/06/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71