3

Distant Sun

2yo Gelding · 9-4

Pontefract · Always Trying Racing Syndicate EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6y

#8

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Timeform

Commentary

42,000 gns Australia half-brother to 1¼m winner Guesstimate. Soon detached in novice at Windsor. Has since been gelded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move2
Strength34%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Windsor 24/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m31y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS24/082
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Windsor29th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 7-12 · 50%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength6%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/08/20269th50/10%11%+0.11