IvyArcIvyArc
8

Skies The Spirit

2yo Colt · 8-12

Pontefract · Always Trying Racing Syndicate EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6y

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★ Timeform

Commentary

€16,000 foal (private sale), 12,000 gns 2-y-o, Invincible Spirit colt. Dam unraced half-sister to useful 6f-1m winner Cornwallville out of useful sprinter Morinqua. Always behind in Newcastle novice.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength22%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS5/093
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle36th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 4-9 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength8%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20266th25/10%17%+0.17