5
Iris Olivia
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 77
Pontefract · Celebrating The Life Of Bobby Howard EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Nottingham | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |