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6

Diamond New Bay

2yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 76

Pontefract · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

From a good family in these colours and was backed into 8/13 on debut at Thirsk but could only manage fourth. Much improved when responding well from the front to win a 7-runner novice at Carlisle (6f, good to soft, 11/4) 36 days ago and she could continue to progress on nursery bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Thirsk 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS24/0734 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f182y Goo 12819/084projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Carlisle41st1st0
2026-07-24Thirsk34th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +71.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20264th8/1397%40%-0.57
19/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14