5
Harley
2yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 77
Pontefract · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 2 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ripon | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Nottingham | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hamilton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |