4
Lake Muritz
2yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 78
Pontefract · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength73%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | York | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | York | 1 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-04 | Beverley | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -25.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 04/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |