IvyArcIvyArc
3

The Mean Fiddler

2yo Colt · 9-6 · OR 79

Pontefract · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

200,000 gns No Nay Never colt. Narrowly denied here on debut (5f) and again found only one too good upped to 6f at Ripon next time. Landed the odds in an 8-runner Musselburgh maiden (5f) last month and can improve back in a nursery, the step back up in trip appealing as likely to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f3y Goo 13326/0744 @ Ripon 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 6f Goo 1333/0844 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 79 · 5f1y Goo 133 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 79 par24/084OR 79projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Musselburgh41st1st0
2026-08-03Ripon42nd2nd0
2026-07-26Pontefract42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/073/0824/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength68%

Delivery trend -7.5% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20262nd7/163%80%+0.17
03/08/20262nd5/493%67%-0.27
24/08/20261st1/398%100%+0.02