Auld Toon Loon
7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 93
Pontefract · Simon Scrope Dalby Screw-Driver Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 5y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Windsor | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Windsor | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Windsor | 2 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |
| 20/06/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 12/07/2025 | 18th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 08/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |