9
Be Patient
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 85
Pontefract · Simon Scrope Dalby Screw-Driver Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 5y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Redcar | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-06 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -16.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |