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2

Dain Ma Nut In

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 97

Pontefract · Simon Scrope Dalby Screw-Driver Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 5y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful out in Bahrain in the winter and back to his useful best when ½-length second at Thirsk (form hardly robust) last month. Hasn't been seen to best effect on last 2 starts. May need a couple of these to falter.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 88 · 1m2f56y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 88 par23/082OR 882 @ Ayr 18/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 91 · 1m2f Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 91 parC0 @ Bahrain 19/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 12719/12C?C0 @ Bahrain 29/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 1m1f208y GF 129C1 @ Bahrain 19/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 99 · 1m2f206y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 99 par19/02C1OR 992 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 18th of 22 · OR 99 · 1m2f56y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 97 · 7f218y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 97 par1/082OR 972 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 16th of 20 · OR 98 · 1m2f56y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 98 par2 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 97 · 1m2f Sft 140 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/09/2026 · OR 97 par17/092OR 97projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr29th8th+1
2026-08-22York216th15th+1
2026-08-01Thirsk22nd1st+1
2026-07-11York218th17th+1
2026-02-19Bahrain?7th4th+2
2026-01-29Bahrain?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0829/011/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
18/09/20258th15/261%42%-0.19
19/12/202512th11/271%8%-0.63
29/01/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
19/02/20267th4/179%33%-0.46
11/07/202618th50/10%19%+0.19
01/08/20262nd40/10%90%+0.90
22/08/202616th22/10%21%+0.21
17/09/20269th25/10%20%+0.20