8
Hollywell Stream
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 87
Pontefract · Simon Scrope Dalby Screw-Driver Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 5y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Yarmouth | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 1/1 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |