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Noble Horizon

4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 97

Pontefract · Simon Scrope Dalby Screw-Driver Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 5y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Front runner who bolted up at Leicester in June then ran well in stronger company when second in Glorious Goodwood handicap (both over 1¼m). Likely still in form when sixth in Lanark Silver Bell over 1½m at Hamilton latest. Back down in trip/class and one for the shortlist.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 20/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 84 · 1m2f GF 130 · beat its mark20/06/2025 · OR 84 par20/064OR 845 @ Leicester 17/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 87 · 1m2f Goo 130 · beat its mark17/07/2025 · OR 87 par3 @ Hamilton 12/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 87 · 1m1f35y Goo 133 · beat its mark12/08/2025 · OR 87 par12/083OR 873 @ York 07/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 87 · 1m2f56y Gd 128 · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 87 par4 @ York 11/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 19 · OR 85 · 1m2f56y Gd 134 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 85 par11/104OR 854 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 85 · 1m2f Goo 135 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 84 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 84 par8/064OR 842 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 94 · 1m1f197y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 97 · 1m4f15y GS 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 97 par21/082OR 97projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Hamilton26th5th+1
2026-07-28Goodwood22nd1st+1
2026-06-08Leicester41st2nd−1
2026-05-09Lingfield47th8th−1
2025-10-11York43rd4th−1
2025-09-07York38th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/067/098/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength86%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/06/20252nd8/1597%67%-0.31
17/07/20251st2/999%100%+0.01
12/08/20255th3/184%33%-0.51
07/09/20258th8/158%36%-0.22
11/10/20253rd9/276%89%+0.13
09/05/20267th5/174%14%-0.59
08/06/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
28/07/20262nd13/266%94%+0.28
21/08/20266th11/271%58%-0.13