IvyArcIvyArc
6

Per Contra

5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 82

Pontefract · Simon Scrope Dalby Screw-Driver Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 5y

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a career-low mark in 11-runner handicap at Redcar (1¼m, good) by 1¾ lengths from Percy's Daydream just over 2 weeks ago. Remains on a handy mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 87 · 1m2f56y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 87 par15/052OR 872 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 85 · 1m3f39y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 85 · 1m2f56y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 85 par12/062OR 852 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 84 · 1m2f42y Sta 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 84 par2 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 20th of 22 · OR 85 · 1m2f56y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 85 par11/072OR 853 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 82 · 1m4f10y Goo 130 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 82 par2 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 80 · 1m3f24y Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 80 par6/082OR 803 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 78 · 1m1f207y Hvy 130 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 78 · 1m2f1y Goo 135 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 78 par9/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar41st2nd−1
2026-08-30Beverley33rd3rd0
2026-08-06Southwell28th7th+1
2026-07-18Ripon34th4th0
2026-07-11York220th19th+1
2026-06-25Newcastle28th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0525/066/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength77%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/202613th22/10%14%+0.14
30/05/20263rd20/10%82%+0.82
12/06/20264th20/10%80%+0.80
25/06/20268th11/486%13%-0.73
11/07/202620th66/10%10%+0.10
18/07/20264th11/271%50%-0.21
06/08/20268th16/116%36%+0.21
30/08/20263rd17/255%78%+0.23
09/09/20261st10/382%100%+0.18