Al Fujairah

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 69

Pontefract · Pontefract Prince Of Wales Hospice Handicap · 1m 4f 5y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C4.5

Today: 5

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-09	Redcar	5	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-11	Hamilton	4	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-07-16	Hamilton	5	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-25	Hamilton	4	4th	3rd	+1	7.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength68%

Delivery trend -14.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/06/2026	4th	66/1	0%	50%	+0.50
16/07/2026	3rd	40/1	0%	60%	+0.60
11/08/2026	2nd	18/1	5%	86%	+0.80
09/09/2026	5th	17/2	55%	50%	-0.05