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5

Golden Caviar

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 69

Pontefract · Pontefract Prince Of Wales Hospice Handicap · 1m 4f 5y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hinted at promise in his 3 qualifying runs but failed to take the required step forward when sixth of 9 in handicap at Redcar (1¼m, good) 15 days ago. Now goes up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/1044 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f104y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS30/0743 @ Haydock 07/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 1m2f42y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS7/0835 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m2f1y Goo 136 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 70 par9/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar56th6th0
2026-08-07Haydock33rd1st+2
2026-07-30Wolverhampton45th4th+1
2025-10-04Newmarket45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1030/077/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -15.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20255th40/10%33%+0.33
30/07/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
07/08/20263rd22/10%0%0.00
09/09/20266th11/142%38%-0.05