4
Jam Lass
5yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 62
Pontefract · Pontefract Prince Of Wales Hospice Handicap · 1m 4f 5y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redcar | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-10-17 | Redcar | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-06 | Pontefract | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2024 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/01/2025 | 8th | 250/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 18/09/2025 | 2nd | 125/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 06/10/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/11/2025 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 26/11/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/04/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |