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8

Long Reign

3yo Gelding · 8-4 · OR 49

Pontefract · Pontefract Prince Of Wales Hospice Handicap · 1m 4f 5y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Half-brother to a useful sort at this trip but only managed poor form in 3 qualifying runs in the spring. Will need to have improved for longer trip and switch to handicaps.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 12.1 /10 (raw 13.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 25th of 25 · OR - · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS18/0444 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS11/0543 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f201y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS9/063projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-09Salisbury37th5th+2
2026-05-11Windsor49th8th+1
2026-04-18Newbury425th24th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0411/059/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength56%

Delivery trend +16.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/202625th125/10%0%0.00
11/05/20269th200/10%33%+0.33
09/06/20267th250/10%33%+0.33