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Mother Dear

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 70

Pontefract · Pontefract Prince Of Wales Hospice Handicap · 1m 4f 5y

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stepped forward from her first run when winning novice at Goodwood (1¼m) in May. Disappointed under a penalty at Ffos Las the following month, however, and ran no sort of race on handicap bow at Leicester earlier this month. Sports first-time cheekpieces as she goes up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 17/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 7f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0442 @ Goodwood 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m1f197y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS23/0524 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 75 · 1m2f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 75 par30/064OR 754 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m2f GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 73 par8/094OR 73projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Leicester46th5th+1
2026-06-30Ffos Las45th4th+1
2026-05-23Goodwood21st-3th+3
2026-04-17Newbury48th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0423/0530/068/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -20.8% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20268th80/10%30%+0.30
23/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
30/06/20265th6/594%33%-0.60
08/09/20266th14/126%17%-0.10