6
Saratoga Gold
8yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 61
Pontefract · Pontefract Prince Of Wales Hospice Handicap · 1m 4f 5y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Nottingham | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Doncaster | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 64% | +0.00 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |