7
Thunder Goddess
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 61
Pontefract · Pontefract Prince Of Wales Hospice Handicap · 1m 4f 5y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Pontefract | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Windsor | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/03/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 17/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |