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13

Arduis Invicta

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 75

Pontefract · Explore Shared Racehorse Ownership At inthepaddock.co.uk Handicap · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not the easiest to predict but handicapper has been quick to relent and she took advantage with a narrow success at Doncaster 11 days ago. Able to race off the same mark so big chance if able to back that up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 86 · 6f2y Hvy 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 86 par25/101OR 861 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 83 · 5f10y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 83 · 6f17y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 83 par6/053OR 833 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 83 · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 5f1y Gd 131 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 81 par6/064OR 814 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 81 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 17th of 26 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 80 par29/074OR 804 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 78 · 6f Sft 136 · below its mark01/09/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 75 · 6f2y Gd 130 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 75 par13/094OR 75projClass-projected finish: 7th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster41st1st0
2026-09-01Ripon49th9th0
2026-07-29Goodwood417th17th0
2026-06-27York44th4th0
2026-06-06Musselburgh42nd2nd0
2026-05-15York36th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1015/0529/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20256th4/179%17%-0.62
05/04/202611th50/10%23%+0.23
06/05/20266th50/10%55%+0.55
15/05/20266th17/255%69%+0.13
06/06/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
27/06/20264th16/116%77%+0.61
29/07/202617th28/10%36%+0.36
01/09/20269th18/15%11%+0.06
13/09/20261st12/137%100%+0.63