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16

Fiscal Policy

7yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 70

Pontefract · Explore Shared Racehorse Ownership At inthepaddock.co.uk Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

41%

Place Prob

31%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enhanced his very good record at Pontefract with a narrow win over C&D last week and obvious claims off the same mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 69 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 69 par8/065OR 695 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 69 · 6f Goo 138 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 75 par25/064OR 754 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 17th of 19 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 130 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 75 par24/074OR 754 @ Newmarket 07/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 74 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 74 par3 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 72 · 6f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 72 par16/083OR 724 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 71 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Pontefract 17/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 70 · 6f Gd 142 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 70 par17/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 4th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Pontefract51st2nd−1
2026-09-05Thirsk45th5th0
2026-08-16Pontefract33rd2nd+1
2026-08-07Newmarket46th6th0
2026-07-24York411th11th0
2026-07-11York417th17th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0611/0716/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
19/06/20263rd10/382%87%+0.04
25/06/20262nd7/491%75%-0.16
11/07/202617th22/10%11%+0.11
24/07/202611th25/10%50%+0.50
07/08/20266th6/168%44%-0.24
16/08/20263rd28/10%75%+0.75
05/09/20265th5/174%43%-0.31
17/09/20261st9/488%100%+0.12