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2

Kodiac Thriller

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 83

Pontefract · Explore Shared Racehorse Ownership At inthepaddock.co.uk Handicap · 6f

#12

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twice a winner this year, including over 5f at York in July. However, struggled both starts since, albeit in a higher grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 82 par18/102OR 823 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 17th of 19 · OR 81 · 6f2y GS 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 79 · 6f GS 129 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 79 par16/044OR 793 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 81 · 6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 21 · OR 81 · 6f Goo 136 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 81 par13/064OR 814 @ Ripon 06/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 140 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 166 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 80 par25/074OR 802 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 84 · 5f15y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 84 par11/093OR 84projClass-projected finish: 11th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester39th8th+1
2026-08-15Ripon29th7th+2
2026-07-25York41st1st0
2026-07-06Ripon44th4th0
2026-06-13York413th13th0
2026-05-08Ascot310th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/108/0525/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength9%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/10/20257th10/147%40%-0.07
29/03/202617th33/10%11%+0.11
16/04/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
08/05/202610th13/266%0%-0.66
13/06/202613th22/10%40%+0.40
06/07/20264th4/179%63%-0.16
25/07/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
15/08/20269th16/116%38%+0.23
11/09/20269th7/163%11%-0.52