Rare Change
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 80
Pontefract · Explore Shared Racehorse Ownership At inthepaddock.co.uk Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Salisbury | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Goodwood | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-16 | Pontefract | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Goodwood | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Chester | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 24/10/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 06/05/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 16/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |