6
Kochan
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 69
Remington Park · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Remington Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Lone Star | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Lone Star | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Lone Star | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Lone Star | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 11/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |