I Rest My Case

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 53

Remington Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 7f 110y

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-13	Remington Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-14	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2025-08-06	Saratoga	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2025-06-29	Belmont At The Big A	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength11%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
29/06/2025	4th	9/2	76%	57%	-0.19
06/08/2025	6th	4/1	79%	29%	-0.50
14/05/2026	6th	11/4	86%	0%	-0.86
13/09/2026	3rd	8/1	58%	33%	-0.25