Overthrow

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 45

Remington Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 7f 110y

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▼3

Strength86%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-04-27	Will Rogers Downs	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-04-14	Will Rogers Downs	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-03-24	Will Rogers Downs	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength50%

Delivery trend +9.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/03/2026	5th	12/1	37%	56%	+0.19
14/04/2026	6th	14/1	26%	0%	-0.26
27/04/2026	6th	25/1	0%	38%	+0.38