5
Arc La Shari
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 59
Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap · 1m 14y
#14
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 4 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-17 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength13%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 14/06/2026 | 11th | 125/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 31/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |